The Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation released a preliminary estimate of an amendment in the nature of a substitute to H.R. 4872, the Reconciliation Act of 2010.
- “[T]he combined effect of enacting H.R. 3590 and the reconciliation bill would also be to reduce federal budget deficits over the ensuing decade relative to those projected under current law—with a total effect during that decade that is in a broad range around one-half percent of GDP. The incremental effect of enacting the reconciliation bill (over and above the effect of enacting H.R. 3590 by itself) would thus be to further reduce federal budget deficits in that decade, with a total effect that is in a broad range between zero and one-quarter percent of GDP.”
- Although CBO is not able to produce precise estimates of the effects beyond the first decade, the conclusion that the legislation will reduce the deficit in a broad range around one-half percent of GDP equals deficit reduction of more than $1 trillion, potentially as much as $1.3 trillion or more. The reconciliation bill would result in even greater long term deficit reduction than the Senate bill in the second decade, potentially by a couple hundred billion dollars of additional deficit reduction.
- “[I]n view of the projected net savings during the decade following the 10-year budget window, CBO anticipates that the reconciliation proposal would probably continue to reduce budget deficits relative to those under current law in subsequent decades...
- The reconciliation bill strengthens the long-term deficit reduction already in the Senate bill and complies with the Byrd rule requirement that reconciliation legislation not increase the deficit in any year after 2014.
- The preliminary CBO analysis estimates that 32 million more Americans will have health insurance in 2019 as a result of the legislation - 95% of all legal U.S. residents.
View printer-friendly PDF of this document.